U.S. consumer confidence declined again in September as Americans’ pessimism over inflation and the weakening job market continued to grow.
The Conference Board said Tuesday that its consumer confidence index fell by 3.6 points to 94.2 in September, down from August’s 97.8. That’s a bigger drop than analysts were expecting and the lowest reading since April, when President Donald Trump rolled out his sweeping tariff policy.
A measure of Americans’ short-term expectations for their income, business conditions and the job market fell to 73.4, remaining well below 80, the marker that can signal a recession ahead. Consumers’ assessments of their current economic situation dipped by 7 points to 125.4.
Write-in responses to the survey showed that references to prices and inflation rose this month, regaining its top position as consumers’ main concern about the economy. Mentions of tariffs declined this month but remain elevated, the Conference Board said.
Government data released earlier this month showed that inflation rose in August as the price of gas, groceries, and airfares jumped.
Consumer prices increased 2.9% last month from a year earlier, the Labor Department said, up from 2.7% the previous month and the biggest jump since January. Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core prices rose 3.1%, the same as in July.
While unemployment and layoffs remain historically low, there has been noticeable deterioration in the labor market this year and mounting evidence that people are having difficulty finding jobs.
Earlier this month, the government reported that U.S. nonfarm employers added a paltry 22,000 jobs in August, following July’s disappointing 79,000 job gains. Worse, revisions to the May and June figures shaved 258,000 jobs off previous estimates. The unemployment rate stands at 4.3%, the highest since October 2021.
Also Tuesday, the Labor Department reported that U.S. job openings in August remained at 7.2 million, about the same as the previous month.
In addition to the lingering effects of 11 interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve’s inflation fighters in 2022 and 2023, economists say the recent hiring slump may also be a result of Trump’s policies, including his sweeping and ever-changing tariffs on imports, a crackdown on illegal immigration and purges of the federal workforce.
Many companies are locked in a “no hire, no fire” position, fearful of expanding payrolls until the effects of Trump’s tariffs are more clear.
More jobs data comes Friday when the government releases its September labor market data, with analysts forecasting 50,000 job gains. However, that report could be postponed if a budget impasse in Congress leads to a government shutdown Wednesday.
The share of consumers expecting a recession over the next year rose modestly in September to the highest level since May.
Survey respondents who said they intended to buy a new or used car in the near future fell, while the share of those saying they planned to purchase a home rose to a four-month high.
Those saying they planned to buy big-ticket items like appliances were little changed from August with big variations across categories.
—Matt Ott, AP business writer