Inflation in the US is on the rise, as indicated by the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index that rose 0.3% in September. Inflation now sits at 2.8%, above the Fed’s target, while unemployment continues to rise. This is the data the Federal Open Market Committee will review when it meets for the last time in 2025.
Gasoline prices spiked 4.1% in September, the leading cause of the overall rise in headline CPI. Shelter costs are continuing to rise, up 0.2% on a monthly basis. Housing alone has contributed 1.7 percentage points to CPI. Housing combined with health care created two-thirds of the annual increase in inflation. Naturally, this is an area of concern—these are the basic necessities for existence.
Grocery prices have not waned, with food at home rising to 2.7% in September. The overall food index is at 3.1%–notable annual rises include meats/poultry/fish/eggs (+5.2%) and nonalcoholic beverages (+5.3%); cereals/bakery (+1.6%), fruits/vegetables (+1.3%), and dairy (+0.7%).
Looking at employment, nonfarm payrolls rose by 119,000 in September, surpassing market expectations. Unemployment now stands at 4.4%, up 0.1% from the month prior, at the highest level since October 2021. The Labor Department revised job figures for July and August to show a decrease of 33,000 positions. We’ve seen a number of corporations impose mass layoffs this year. The data is skewed from the government shutdown. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said it will not bother to publish the full October jobs report.
The data is never accurate; the agency is bypassing October and admittedly overreporting numbers in the summer. I do not see much reassurance from the September jobs report.