The United States military action in Iran is making some Americans concerned about what they’ll pay at the pump to fuel their vehicles. But that’s not the only price spike that could come from the conflict.
The war in the Middle East has essentially halted global shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman. That disrupts not only the flow of oil, but also the movement of natural gas, fertilizer, aluminum, and more, which could impact the price of other goods—including food.
“Those impacts will be significant and will have cascading global ramifications,” says Michael E. Webber, an energy expert from the University of Texas at Austin, via email.
The conflict could also snare supply chains broadly as trade routes shift. And with fuel prices increasing broadly, your commute isn’t the only transportation affected.
Prices to ship anything may rise, too, leading to higher retail costs. In these ways, surging energy prices often increase inflation.
Oil affects tractors, semi-trucks, and cargo ships
This week, oil prices spiked to more than $100 a barrel. Though they’ve since dropped below that threshold, the uncertainties around the war—including conflicting comments from the Trump administration about how long it will continue—have experts worried about the market.
That barrel price refers to crude oil, from which gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel are made. Diesel is often used for tractors on farms, meaning price hikes could affect a farmers’ operating costs.
Semi-trucks and cargo ships also often rely on diesel, so rising fuel costs could affect all sorts of goods that need to be moved around the planet. That could make it more expensive to import things like fruits and vegetables.
Fossil fuels like oil and natural gas are used to make everything from plastics to clothing fabrics. Already, apparel makers in China are bracing for price hikes amid the volatile oil market.
Fertilizer moves through the Strait of Hormuz
Though all sorts of industries are affected by rising energy costs, our food system is particularly vulnerable.
For one, it relies on fertilizer, which moves through the Strait of Hormuz. Along with about 20% of the world’s oil, that passageway is responsible for roughly a third of the world’s fertilizers.
It also moves ingredients used to make fertilizers, like global liquefied natural gas (which is also used for fuel and residential heating), as well as urea.
Fertilizer prices were also impacted by Russia’s war with Ukraine, and though they’ve come down slightly since then, they remain high compared to before 2022, when Russia launched its full-scale invasion.
“As a consequence, a lot of farmers have been really concerned about the cost of fertilizer, because they see their margins being squeezed,” says Joseph Glauber, senior fellow emeritus at the International Food Policy Research Institute. “Now, of course, this is just an added burden.”
Typically, there aren’t reserves or stockloads of fertilizer, in part because of high storage costs and a quick supply chain. That means when a major fertilizer producing region like the Persian Gulf is affected, prices will surge.
How much that fertilizer production will move elsewhere around the world, or how long the Strait of Hormuz stays closed for ships, are all currently unknown factors that will affect just how high prices go.
Food prices are affected in multiple ways
Food production doesn’t only rely on fertilizer for crops. It requires electricity, fuel, and processing.
“So much of the cost of retail food happens after the farm,” Glauber says. He estimates just 15% of the value of retail food is actually due to farm costs.
Energy prices do affect those on-the-farm costs, but they factor in for “almost every step of the way” for food production at large, he adds.
Webber lists out some of these other factors: “The global food system depends on electricity (for pumping water, processing, and refrigeration) . . . propane (for drying crops), oil (for diesel to operate tractors and other equipment), and other agrochemicals such as pesticides that depend on oil and gas as feedstocks.”
“As a result of the strait’s closure and other impacts on global capacity for these energy products,” he adds, “I expect food prices to soar.”
That will affect Americans, but also other people in countries like India and China, and throughout Latin America, and of course food supplies in the Persian Gulf itself, which relies heavily on agriculture imports.
So much of these impacts depends on how long the conflict in Iran will continue. When it comes to fertilizers, in the short term there are “ample crop supplies in the world,” Glauber says—though growing shipping costs could still affect consumer prices.
If the impacts are prolonged, that could worsen things for shoppers. However, markets tend to do well at finding alternative suppliers or new trade routes, he adds.
Still, particularly in the U.S., consumers are already dealing with high grocery prices which haven’t dropped since the pandemic. As of October 2025, grocery costs were up 25% over the past five years.
“We’ve just come through the highest food inflation in 30-odd years, in the last few years,” Glauber says. “No one has much stomach to see that again.”