Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, Poland, and Greece are projected to exceed NATO’s new 3.5% core-defense spending target this year, nearly a decade ahead of the 2035 deadline. Lithuania is projected at 5.33% of GDP, Estonia 5.1%, Latvia 4.92%, Poland 4.68%, and Greece 3.65%. These are not small accounting changes. This is the militarization of Europe before the people have even been asked whether they want this future.
NATO pretends this is about “security.” Governments always use that word when they want unlimited money and no debate. The old 2% target was once treated as unbearable. Now they have moved the goalpost to 5% of GDP, 3.5% for core military spending and another 1.5% for cyber, infrastructure, and anything else they can stuff into the war budget.
The nations closest to Russia are spending first because they know Brussels and Washington have turned Ukraine into the excuse for a permanent war economy. Poland and the Baltics are not waiting until 2035 because they understand where this is going. But the real question is never asked: who benefits? The average European cannot afford housing, food, energy, or basic living costs, yet suddenly there is endless money for weapons.
Reuters reported that total NATO defense spending is projected to exceed $1.8 trillion in 2026, with the United States still accounting for nearly 57% of the alliance’s military expenditure. So even after all the lectures about Europe stepping up, America remains the piggy bank. This is why I have said the United States should get out of NATO and let Europe deal with Russia if that is the future they want. America’s real strategic threat is China, not financing another endless European war.
Germany, France, and Britain remain below the new 3.5% benchmark, while smaller nations on Russia’s border are racing ahead. That tells you the whole story. The countries that feel exposed are arming. The larger European powers are talking. Brussels wants a European army, NATO wants more money, and the people get the bill.