In recent years, Americans have borne the economic brunt of global supply chain instability. During the pandemic, the supply of essential goods was uncertain as prices skyrocketed; tariffs and associated ambiguity have more recently forced supply chains to adapt; and leverage over supply chains has frequently been wielded as a weapon of war, as in Russia’s energy war against Europe, Iran’s Hormuz pressure campaign, and Taiwan’s “silicon shield” against a potential invasion. Enhancing American supply chain independence, particularly for goods needed by critical industries, is therefore an economic imperative—and must be treated as such by leaders across sectors.
Some supply chains—such as those involved in the production of semiconductors—are profoundly complex and therefore less prone to straightforward solutions for enhancing resiliency. Yet for certain critical industries that touch the lives of nearly every American, such as homebuilding, the path to more resilient supply chains is much clearer. It simply requires rethinking certain fundamental assumptions about what we build with.
LUMBER: AMERICA’S BIGGEST BUILDING BOTTLENECK
Plywood and OSB, both heavily dependent on the lumber supply chain, are key elements of many Americans’ most important possessions: homes. Homeownership has traditionally been the pathway to wealth-building for Americans and part and parcel of the American Dream. Yet the pandemic underlined the fragility of that dream for too many. Supply chain constraints and an overreliance on foreign suppliers led to a 300% spike in the price of lumber, which translated to $14,345 more to build a single-family home and up to $36,000 added to the final price tag of a new build during the peak in spring of 2021. That means the ladder to the American Dream was put on hold due to building materials-related supply chain challenges.
Lumber prices have come back down from their sky-high peak during the pandemic, but that doesn’t mean the U.S. construction industry has the luxury of maintaining the status quo. First, geopolitics remain volatile, whether due to tariffs or conflicts that have impacted prices. Second, our climate is rapidly changing and our building materials, particularly plywood, must adapt. From 2020 to 2023 alone, there were 80 major flood disasters, half the number recorded in the entire previous decade, and the 5-year average disaster cost per capita rose from about $150 in the 2000s to over $400 in the late 2010s. To add to the peril of our dependence on flood and rot-prone foreign lumber, most flood insurance is limited, leaving homeowners on the hook.
THE “MIRACLE” MATERIAL THAT HASN’T AGED WELL
Homeowners understand that the whole story isn’t “plywood or bust.” Alternatives have been around for a long time, chief among them PVC, which replaced plywood primarily in siding and windows, as well as pipes. Just like many of the artificial and popular alternatives of the ‘70s and ‘80s, its claims (and appearance) fell apart after a few years.
In PVC’s case, there was clear utility in moisture-prone areas where plywood struggled. But it is fast approaching uselessness under the new standard weather conditions accelerated by climate change—whether extreme heat or extreme cold. When subjected to heat, PVC warps and melts, while energy-efficient windows installed to counter extreme weather often reflect intense heat onto PVC siding, melting it even faster. In cold, it becomes brittle and loses its ability to survive common impacts, rendering it just as useless as it is during extreme heat.
AMERICAN ALTERNATIVES
Depending on its source, lumber faces vast quality differences. Switching to plywood sourced exclusively from regions with superior material, typically in the U.S. or Canada, may address quality and cost concerns to an extent. However, it cannot entirely resolve supply bottlenecks and persistent price fluctuations. Meanwhile, PVC’s promise has either melted away or shattered, depending on the weather it’s facing.
Fortunately, there is a new generation of wood-based engineered alternatives manufactured in the U.S. Fiber cement board and poured concrete panels can also be useful for different aspects of the homebuilding process, as they are abundantly available domestically, have uniform qualities, and are fire-resistant.
Another highly compelling alternative to conventional lumber-based homebuilding and PVC is a polypropylene-based approach. Boards made from recycled plastic compete with the highest-end plywood, serve as a 1:1 replacement. Crucially, they are waterproof and rot-proof while remaining price-competitive. Domestically produced polypropylene-based alternatives are made of recycled polymers that would otherwise sit in landfills. If we can simultaneously increase supply chain independence and structural durability while recycling discarded plastic and preventing countless trees from being cut down, we absolutely should.
We will almost certainly never be entirely protected from supply chain shocks. Yet recent supply chain lessons teach us that where there is an opportunity to produce domestically and increase predictability, it is worth doing so, especially with building materials. Domestic alternatives that offer better structural strength, dependability, and flood-proofing capabilities abound, all within the same price range as conventional wood-based products.
Most new homes in the U.S. are still built with wood and PVC. Though affordable, that is not a serious alternative. While achieving supply chain independence is often full of trade-offs, homebuilding materials are often an easier switch. If the American Dream is going to be put once again within the reach of more Americans, we have to make high-quality, affordable housing more accessible. We can’t depend on turbulent global supply chains for our building materials. Instead, the U.S. construction sector should look to high-performance, environmentally sustainable, and homegrown alternatives.
Sean Petterson is CEO and cofounder of Supersede.