We’re still in the earliest days of artificial intelligence. It was just November 2022 when OpenAI released ChatGPT, and the world changed. However, enough time has passed for us to have a sufficient perspective to categorize AI and autonomous agents into three distinct eras.
- Introduction—2024: In the initial shockwave, there was more novelty and hype than practicality around the possibilities of AI. Businesses and leaders understandably struggled to understand what was barreling toward them.
- Evaluation—2025: There was a reality check for organizations as they began testing, experimenting with, and piloting AI projects in their search for use cases that created value. For various reasons, businesses often failed to achieve the results they expected or sometimes even saw their efforts completely stall.
- Production—2026: The coming year is when we begin to see a real payoff from business investments as innovative organizations take what they’ve learned and seriously embrace AI, embedding agents throughout their operations to realize value.
It’s an absolute certainty that AI activation will become the story of business. We’re witnessing a profound shift from pilots to production agents embedded in real business processes, and it’s going to explode exponentially as AI adoption enters the mainstream enterprise and delivers measurable ROI. And the stakes will be incredibly high for businesses to get it right.
TIME TO SEPARATE HYPE AND ACTIVATION
Two things can be true at the same time. We can observe heightened speculation about AI alongside the on-the-ground emergence of agentic capabilities in real-world environments.
The massive investments in power generation, data centers, and chip innovation are unlike anything we’ve ever witnessed. The market cap of hyperscalers is reaching vertigo-inducing heights. Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JPMorgan Chase, frequently references this as a “picks-and-shovels” moment in a modern gold rush because it’s the infrastructure that will enable the innovation that comes next.
Much of the conversation today focuses on whether we’re in an AI bubble. That speculation will likely continue, but the real story is what comes next. We’re not spending enough time imagining the world that will emerge on the other side of this period of intense innovation, whatever form that transition takes.
From a historical perspective, there have been many boom-and-bust cycles that, over the long run, proved beneficial. I’ve been in the software industry for nearly three decades, which means I know bubbles firsthand. I began my business career in the 1990s, at the dawn of the Internet era, and experienced the dot-com boom and the subsequent crash. The market disruption was profound and painful.
Fast forward to today. Can anyone imagine if we couldn’t order a sandwich on our phones and have it delivered in 15 minutes or less? There was an incredible payoff, but that only became apparent over time. Many of the innovations and infrastructure built in that era laid the groundwork for the world we live in today. We need to focus on the long game because AI will improve our lives immeasurably.
In moments of rapid technological change, the broader environment typically undergoes significant shifts as innovation accelerates. What’s unmistakable, however, is that the future belongs to companies that view AI not simply as a tool, but as a game-changing intelligence that’s omnipresent in everything they do as they deliver for their customers.
It’s why I remain so optimistic about the impact AI will have on all of us.
PREDICTIONS FOR 2026
This will be the most productive year in history, as concerns about AI replacing humans fade and the technology instead augments people, enabling them to perform their jobs more effectively and improving their lives.
- Trust in AI. The level of confidence businesses place in AI to help them run their organizations will increase as they adopt measures that emphasize greater governance and data accuracy.
- AI translates to ROI. This relates directly to trust. We’ve already begun to see it, but the growth in real business value (substance, not hype) will happen as we move beyond simplistic AI co-pilots to agentic solutions that become integral to making businesses and people more productive. As more agents enter production, it will inevitably lead to sprawl. A mindset shift toward agent governance will be crucial to delivering the greatest return.
- Race toward AGI. We will reach peak intensity in the development of artificial general intelligence. I expect we’ll see announcements and investments that advance ambitious research initiatives across the field.
- Flood of mergers and acquisitions. As the pressure to adopt AI intensifies, companies that haven’t kept pace with innovation will be forced to explore new ways to advance their technology roadmaps. We can expect to see more organizations pursuing partnerships and selective acquisitions to strengthen their AI position.
It’s going to be a busy year.
WHAT WILL DEFINE 2026
We’ve reached the long-heralded moment of divergence between the AI natives and the AI nots. There will be a gap. It will be wide. And it will become painfully clear which category businesses fall into this year.
The pressure will grow on CEOs and the board of directors to make AI activation their top technology investment priority. That means stopping experimentation and expecting production results. Businesses can’t afford to fall so far behind that they can’t catch up.
The question for you in 2026 is this: What kind of foundation are you building in your business so that AI becomes a competitive advantage?
Steve Lucas is the chairman and CEO at Boomi.