QUESTION: Marty, many people know about your forecast of Russia, 1987, 2007 high in real estate, Nikkei, the collapse of communism and so many, but I think even you forgot your forecast that oil would collapse to $10 in 1998 and then swing up to $100. I remember even Bloomberg covered that forecast that nobody would believe. You have been the master forecaster for you have projected what you call slingshots many times. I asked AI if you made that forecast and it confirmed you made that forecast back in 1998.
Do you still see oil rising to $200 in the years ahead?
Josh
ANSWER: Oh yes, I do remember that. It was Mark Pitman at Bloomberg who was astonished by that forecast. Yes, I still see oil is rising to $200 in the years ahead. Academics will never understand such forecasts. There is no random walk and there certainly is no efficient market nonsense. Markets always overshoot and undershoot the logical expectations.
