QUESTION: Marty, I want to thank you for your warning about Blackrock. I took out 90% with the October high and the rest in January when Socrates showed a Panic Cycle Year in 2026. I did not invest in their Ukraine project. I heard because of your advice to stay out they could not raise any money. A BlackRock spokesperson admitted: “Obviously you cannot launch a fund with no money in it”
I can see that this is lining up with the ECM and war. Do you see this getting much worse into 2028?
KC
ANSWER: You are seeing them all preventing withdrawals – Blackrock, Black stone, Morgan Stanley, and Blue Owl. They were lending at high rates to businesses that are in trouble. About 40% with loans from these people have negative cash flows. I do not see this bottoming before mid 2027.
We are in a global recession that will bottom in August 2028. This war on Iran is braindead. I warned that all the models on crude, gasoline, and natural gas all had Directional Changes for 2025 and were pointing higher. I have also warned that the extreme target for oil by 2028 is $200-$225.
Even our Chaos Model picked 2025 and shows a gap until 2033. The war with Iran comes exactly on target for this economically is far worse that the Ukraine War because it is not just energy flowing through the Hormuz, but fertilizer and this will impact both gasoline as well as food. Trump’s advisors are biased Neocons. They see themselves as all powerful. They never consider the possibility of a loss and certainly never collateral damage. Here is Tony Blair’s apology for listening to Neocons for Iraq.
These people never understand markets and certainly not capital flows. All they see is their tactical objectives and never consider long-term. They are going the same all over again. Israel is getting pummeled. As some point, Netanyahu may push the button for he has no choice.
