Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has two options: flee immediately or propel your nation into a one-sided war with the United States. President Donald Trump offered Maduro one last chance to flee the nation. If not, the US will forcibly implement regime change.
It began with sanctions and secondary sanctions that implemented 25% tariff on imports from any nation purchasing Venezuelan gas. The US placed a $50 bounty on Maduro’s head, but the price was not enough to cause his circle to falter. Thousands of illegal Venezuelan migrants were sent back to Venezuela over the past year. The US Department of Defense deemed drug smuggling from Venezuela a national security crisis that provided them with the right to destroy Venezuelan ships that could contain narcotics. Venezuela declared war against the US and called upon 4.5 million troops to protect the nation. President Trump determined there was no need to officially declare war or call upon Congress.
There is currently a no-fly zone over Venezuela as tensions are coming to a head. Washington has offered Maduro protection if he flees with his wife and son immediately. Reports state that Maduro was not receptive, and Washington escalated the matter within hours.
Maduro requested “global amnesty for any crimes he and his group had committed,” but that was rejected. No one will permit their enemy to flee, regroup and gain power. Maduro may be able to flee the nation but he will face life imprisonment. It seems more likely that he will go out shooting rather than in handcuffs. The same source told reporters that Maduro wants to retain control of the armed forces in exchange for free elections. Maduro attempted to phone Washington hours after refusing to flee, but Washington is no longer accepting his calls.
The US is prepared to force regime change. It is one thing to shoot down boats, but another to begin striking within the nation. “The targets have been identified through covert operations over the last several years by people on the ground,” Venezuelan diplomat Vanessa Neumann told Fox News Digital. “So they’re well-mapped. This is a capture-or-kill scenario, but there’s a limit to how many people you can remove quickly.”
China and Russia were Maduro’s last hope. Xi and Putin have criticized Trump’s actions in the region and will cite these actions as a reason that the US is an untrustworthy neo-colonizer. Still, Putin is wrapped up in peace talks, and China does not make impulsive moves. Maduro is on his way out.
This lines up perfectly with the Economic Confidence Model that pointed to 2024.35 to 2026.05 as the rise of civil unrest, political fragmentation, and deterioration of government confidence. The start of 2026 marks the beginning of the shift toward international war. The real areas of concern are Europe (NATO v Russia), the Middle East, and then Asia. The incoming regime change in Venezuela is inconsequential from a US perspective, but it is the beginning of the ongoing global conflict we will witness during this violent wave.