QUESTION: You first publicly forecasted that gold would reach $5,000 per ounce in late 2009, specifically on November 7, 2009. You said the earliest would be $5,000 by 2016 if there was international war. But you said that the $5,000 target would be more likely by 2027 to 2032. I believe you said your extreme target was $12,000 but that was not highly likely. You correctly said that 2015 was the low on a 3-year correction and gold was just $1100 when you made that forecast. Has anything changed in nearly 10 years?
Pete
ANSWER: The main reason why I have tried to open Socrates to the world is in hopes that after 2032, we may enter an initial Dark Age meaning that society will fragment as countries break apart and we will be given the opportunity to recreate government from scratch. My interpretation is not always correct. I have stated many times when I have tried to defeat my own computer, I am always wrong. No human is ever 100% infallible. We would not be human otherwise.
That said, nothing has changed. I understand that people think if you cannot forecast where gold will close tomorrow, how can you forecast 10 years in advance? The answer is contrary to what people understand. There is a lot of noise in the system. Whether gold closes $10 higher or $20 lower tomorrow does NOT change the long-term trend. I was a hedger. I needed to create a model for the major movies – not for day trading.
This year 2025 was a MAJOR target for a turning point. The next one in 2027. That is where the computer still picks up significantly rising volatility from there into 2032. I still see that the idea of peace in Europe will be negative for prices. But I do not see a 19-year decline as the computer projected in 1980, which was why I began to retire.