Want more housing market stories from Lance Lambert’s ResiClub in your inbox? Subscribe to the ResiClub newsletter.
Zillow economists just published their updated 12-month forecast, projecting that U.S. home prices—as measured by the Zillow Home Value Index—will rise 1.5% between October 2025 and October 2026.
Heading into 2025, Zillow’s 12-month forecast for U.S. home prices was +2.6%. However, many housing markets across the country softened faster than expected, prompting Zillow to issue several downward revisions. By April 2025, Zillow had cut its 12-month national home price outlook to -1.7%.
In late spring, Zillow stopped issuing downward revisions. In August, it revised its 12-month outlook to +0.4%. In September, the forecast increased to +1.2%, and in October Zillow upgraded its 12-month national home price forecast to +1.9%.
This month, Zillow revised down its 12-month outlook for U.S. home price growth just a tad to +1.5%.
While Zillow’s national home price forecast is no longer negative—it isn’t exactly bullish either.
window.addEventListener(“message”,function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(“iframe”);for(var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”;r.style.height=d}}});
Among the 300 largest U.S. metro-area housing markets, Zillow expects the biggest home price increase between October 2025 and October 2026 to occur in these 15 metros:
- Atlantic City, New Jersey → +5.3%
- Rockford, Illinois → +4.8%
- Concord, New Hampshire → +4.6%
- Knoxville, Tennessee → +4.3%
- Saginaw, Michigan → +4.3%
- Jacksonville, North Carolina → +4.2%
- Kingston, New York → +4.2%
- Fayetteville, Arkansas → +4.1%
- Green Bay, Wisconsin → +4.1%
- Torrington, Connecticut → +4.1%
- New Haven, Connecticut → +4.0%
- Hartford, Connecticut → +3.9%
- Hilton Head Island, South Carolina +3.9%
- Manchester, New Hampshire → +3.8%
- Norwich, Connecticut → +3.8%
Among the 300 largest U.S. metro-area housing markets, Zillow expects the biggest home price decline between October 2025 and October 2026 to occur in these 15 metros:
- Houma, Louisiana → -7.8%
- Lake Charles, Louisiana → -7.3%
- New Orleans → -4.7%
- Shreveport, Louisiana → -4.3%
- Lafayette, Louisiana → -4.2%
- Beaumont, Texas → -4.0%
- Alexandria, Louisiana → -3.9%
- Odessa, Texas → -3.0%
- Monroe, Louisiana → -2.7%
- Punta Gorda, Florida → -2.7%
- Austin → -2.6%
- Chico, California → -2.5%
- Corpus Christi, Texas → -2.4%
- San Francisco → -2.2%
- Texarkana, Texas → -2.2%
U.S. home prices, as measured by the Zillow Home Value Index, are currently up 0.01% year over year. If Zillow’s latest 12-month outlook (+1.5%) comes to fruition, it would represent a small acceleration nationally.
Below is what the current year-over-year rate of home price growth looks like for single-family and condo home prices. The Sunbelt, in particular Southwest Florida, is currently the epicenter of housing market weakness.
window.addEventListener(“message”,function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(“iframe”);for(var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”;r.style.height=d}}});
In a report published in October, Kara Ng, a senior economist at Zillow, wrote, “A year ago, 6 of the nation’s 50 largest metros were buyer’s markets; this September, buyers have the edge in 15 metros. Zillow’s market heat index shows the strongest buyer’s markets are Miami, New Orleans, Austin, Jacksonville, and Indianapolis. That’s due, in large part, to a surge of new construction in many of those areas in recent years. The hottest markets for sellers are in the Northeast and Bay Area: Buffalo, Hartford, San Jose, San Francisco, and New York—places where builders face some of the most stringent land use restrictions.”