America’s advertising market has transformed so dramatically over the last decade that almost two-thirds of it is now in the hands of just five tech companies.
This week, MoffettNathanson released a report called “U.S. Advertising: Are We Near the AI Tipping Point?” which highlights, among other things, how generative AI is disrupting TV advertising as interest in traditional media continues to shift away.
The report suggests that the effects of AI have been prominent among some of the largest Big Tech companies, which have taken up incremental market share through improved targeting, engagement, and performant creative.
For instance, the findings point to how five major online companies—Meta Platforms, Amazon, Microsoft, Google owner Alphabet, and ByteDance-owned TikTok—have grown their share of the total U.S. ad market over the past 10 years.
According to the research, the five companies cumulatively made up 22% of the market nearly a decade ago.
However, MoffettNathanson predicts that those companies will make up 65% of the market this year—up 400 basis points—or $260 billion dollars. The rest of the market is projected to decline by $7 billion to $143 billion.
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MoffettNathanson expects the total U.S. ad growth forecast for 2025 to be slightly above previous estimates at 6.3%, with growth continuing to be fueled by digital channels instead of traditional media.
The data also predicts that cable TV advertising will decline by 8%, while broadcast advertising revenue will decline by 9%, and total TV advertising revenue will drop by 9%.
Because of this, linear TV is expected to lose $4 billion of ad spending this year, with advertising-based video on demand (AVOD) taking back about $2 billion. Meanwhile, spending—which includes retail—will continue to flourish, adding nearly $32 billion to the U.S. ad market.
Kill your television, keep your phone?
Overall, the report and its findings speak to a growing trend that many in the industry have suspected for years now: linear TV is slowly dying, while avenues such as online video platforms like YouTube, and more affordable options like ad-supported streaming, are continuing to grow and expand especially among young consumers.
During the 2025-26 TV upfront season, the time when TV networks and streaming services preview their content and programming to advertisers to secure revenue, there was a major push for popular influencers and creators like MrBeast to lure advertising dollars away from traditional TV.
Other social- and mobile-friendly programming, like microdramas, have been gaining traction.
Spanish-language giant TelevisaUnivision’s streaming platform ViX debuted microdramas during its TV upfront presentation, which resulted in successful streaming commitments for the company, and the format has also been gaining traction with competitors. Telemundo launched its own microdramas earlier this month.