The secret of TikTok’s success since its launch has been its algorithm, which presents videos to its 170 million users in the United States. The ability to synthesize users’ interests and keep them scrolling has been the reason the app has grown stratospherically—and is part of the reason why the average user spends more time on the app than watching the average feature film.
But TikTok’s fate is in jeopardy, with its owner ByteDance reportedly approaching a unique deal involving the Trump administration. Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, told Fox News over the weekend that “the algorithm will also be controlled by America,” as part of a deal that would see the app’s data held on secure servers operated by Oracle, the large U.S. data company, and run with a consortium reportedly including media mogul Lachlan Murdoch, the son of Rupert Murdoch. Trump’s press secretary outlined more details of the deal today.
“The future of TikTok has never looked as grim as now,” says Marcus Bösch, a TikTok researcher and consultant.
If the United States does manage to wrest control of the algorithm powering the U.S. version of TikTok and deliver it to American ownership, it would be a win for the White House. It would assuage anti-China hawks, who fear the role the app plays in Americans’ lifestyles. Their campaign against TikTok’s continued existence led to the ban on its operation in the U.S., which Trump has repeatedly delayed through executive orders. Without evidence, those who oppose TikTok argue that its algorithm could be weaponized to push anti-U.S. sentiment onto millions of impressionable young users.
But the latest developments could be a Pyrrhic victory. If the U.S. version of the app’s algorithm differs in any way from the core app’s offering, American citizens could end up with a subpar version of TikTok—and abandon it in droves. TikTok did not immediately respond to Fast Company’s request for comment.
While the specifics of what a post-deal TikTok would look like are unclear, the current app heavily leverages an algorithm developed over the years by ByteDance, including being trained on predecessor apps. There are fears among experts that this highly honed feed could become one designed solely to promote Trump-favorable content.
“A nationalized feed may feel safer or more familiar, but I believe it risks narrowing what people see to American concerns, while filtering out the messy, global commons that once made TikTok so distinctive,” says Tom Divon, a researcher studying TikTok at the Hebrew University in Israel.
Others are equally worried about a whiplash effect. “I anticipate stark shifts in the FYP algorithm,” says Jessica Maddox, associate professor of media studies at the University of Georgia. Maddox has already seen TikTok’s algorithm tending to promote what she calls “daytime TV content” during politically tense times—including footage of cutesy animals and toddlers or wholesome dances. “I see this becoming more of the norm with users struggling to ‘train’ their algorithm back to their specific interests,” Maddox says. “TikTok will become more fluffy, general content instead of being known for its hyper-specific niches.”
And given that its success has, thus far, stemmed from its ability to offer hyper-specific tailoring of content to its users—in contrast to homegrown tech titans like YouTube and Instagram—sacrificing that advantage seems like a great leveler.
Donald Trump has previously said that Chinese President Xi Jinping has approved the terms of the deal, though Chinese and U.S. explanations of the agreement have differed, particularly around the future of the algorithm. According to Chinese state media, China’s Communist Party has said that both parties have reached an agreement to allow ByteDance to retain control of TikTok’s algorithm—something Trump appears to have contradicted.
Bösch believes that the app’s fate could be similar to X after it was transformed from Twitter—one that looks unrecognizable to its core of users but retains a loyal following among a committed minority. And under Trump, what is and isn’t allowed could change significantly.
“I can foresee political terms that don’t align with an administration’s political goals being suppressed,” Maddox says. “Users may also see a change in content moderation guidelines, with objections that could once be overturned on appeal no longer being the case.”
Those who have studied TikTok extensively also fear that the quality of content could drop if users desert the platform. “This one will most likely be filled with so much AI-infused propaganda,” Bösch says. “Nice to study. Most likely not so nice to use in private.”